Giro time
Normally, I don't make picks for Grand Tours. Or, much of anything after the Spring Classics, actually. But, I have had a couple requests to know what I think. Because I have not had the time to investigate, I am dispensing with my usually restrictions on picking riders. If they finished in the top 10 in the last few years, it does not matter. There are just straight up choices.
You can usually count on the usual suspects finishing well in these three week stage races. Plus, you can count on at least a couple Italians to finish on the podium at the Giro. Thus, I don't have a whole lot of surprises. Thinking about past races, I have settled on what I think are Solid choices for victory in Verona. Without further ado. First place will become a 2-time
Giro winner... Denis Menchov. This yeaR'S Second place tends to alternate good years and bad years. This is a good year so Danilo DiLuca will finish second. Finally, all the climbing will suit Franco Pellizotti well for third place.
What?
None of those guys are in the race? Why?
Seriously, though. My choices are not any different than probably any of the other race previews floating around the interwebs. There are three top contenders. Evans, Sastre and Vinovourov. Those names are alphabetical but also the order I think they will finish. But, if I were typing this ten minutes from now, the order would likely be different. My mind has been constantly shuffling and re-shuffling their order.
Evans has been a changed man ever since last year's Tour de France. My only concern is that he tends to follow wheels. Even worse, it has often of not following the wheel of the guy attacking. It is watching a guy ride away and then sitting on the wheel of some other rider and expecting them to pull Evans back to the leader. His newly found confidence seems to have fixed that problem for the most part but I keep expecting a recurrence. Sastre and Vinokourov certainly will not be shy about attacking at opportune times. If Evans sits on the wrong wheels again he may not win.
Sastre is my choice for second merely because of the rough last week. It lends itself to a pure climber and Sastre fits that mold. He should shine on Zoncolan, Plan de Corones, Mortirolo, Gavia, etc.
Vinokourov is a grudging choice. I would like nothing better than to see him go up in a big mushroom cloud over the Italian Alps. But, he likely will not. I am figuring a third place finish because I am counting on him, and his attacking style, to overcook the efforts on one of the stages and then suffer the next day. If not, he might walk away with the giant pasta noodle trophy. Unfortunately.
I will even make some guesses for the remainder of the top 10
Basso - solid but not like his pre-Puerto days
Wiggins - I'm curious to see how he handles the crazy steep stuff like Zoncolan and Mortirolo. I think he will falter some on those stages.
Pozzovivo - His time-trialing will cost him but he has the benefit of the uphill Plan de Corones TT. He should shine in the big mountains and if he is really good then I could see him maybe being 4th or maybe even 3rd. Not counting on that, though
Cunego - Good rider but may be lacking a bit in the big mountains.
Garzelli - Kind of old. Decent in the mountains
Vandevelde - still finding his form and aiming more for the Tour.
The more I look at the list I keep wanting to put others in the top 10, I will go with my gut.
Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nibali, Szmyd, Martin, Tondo, Gerdemann, Bruseghin. Heck, even old man Simoni might rise from the ashes.
You can usually count on the usual suspects finishing well in these three week stage races. Plus, you can count on at least a couple Italians to finish on the podium at the Giro. Thus, I don't have a whole lot of surprises. Thinking about past races, I have settled on what I think are Solid choices for victory in Verona. Without further ado. First place will become a 2-time
Giro winner... Denis Menchov. This yeaR'S Second place tends to alternate good years and bad years. This is a good year so Danilo DiLuca will finish second. Finally, all the climbing will suit Franco Pellizotti well for third place.
What?
None of those guys are in the race? Why?
Seriously, though. My choices are not any different than probably any of the other race previews floating around the interwebs. There are three top contenders. Evans, Sastre and Vinovourov. Those names are alphabetical but also the order I think they will finish. But, if I were typing this ten minutes from now, the order would likely be different. My mind has been constantly shuffling and re-shuffling their order.
Evans has been a changed man ever since last year's Tour de France. My only concern is that he tends to follow wheels. Even worse, it has often of not following the wheel of the guy attacking. It is watching a guy ride away and then sitting on the wheel of some other rider and expecting them to pull Evans back to the leader. His newly found confidence seems to have fixed that problem for the most part but I keep expecting a recurrence. Sastre and Vinokourov certainly will not be shy about attacking at opportune times. If Evans sits on the wrong wheels again he may not win.
Sastre is my choice for second merely because of the rough last week. It lends itself to a pure climber and Sastre fits that mold. He should shine on Zoncolan, Plan de Corones, Mortirolo, Gavia, etc.
Vinokourov is a grudging choice. I would like nothing better than to see him go up in a big mushroom cloud over the Italian Alps. But, he likely will not. I am figuring a third place finish because I am counting on him, and his attacking style, to overcook the efforts on one of the stages and then suffer the next day. If not, he might walk away with the giant pasta noodle trophy. Unfortunately.
I will even make some guesses for the remainder of the top 10
Basso - solid but not like his pre-Puerto days
Wiggins - I'm curious to see how he handles the crazy steep stuff like Zoncolan and Mortirolo. I think he will falter some on those stages.
Pozzovivo - His time-trialing will cost him but he has the benefit of the uphill Plan de Corones TT. He should shine in the big mountains and if he is really good then I could see him maybe being 4th or maybe even 3rd. Not counting on that, though
Cunego - Good rider but may be lacking a bit in the big mountains.
Garzelli - Kind of old. Decent in the mountains
Vandevelde - still finding his form and aiming more for the Tour.
The more I look at the list I keep wanting to put others in the top 10, I will go with my gut.
Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nibali, Szmyd, Martin, Tondo, Gerdemann, Bruseghin. Heck, even old man Simoni might rise from the ashes.
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