Roubaix Picks
Im late with making these picks for Roubaix. I just returned home from the first day of Tour of Hermann. I got my butt handed to me in a TT and Crit. I'm hot, sunburned and a little cranky. Not sure how much I am going to type.
First a little analysis, as usual. Roubaix is a race where, if a rider does well once, he is likely do well multiple times. As evidence, only 31 riders have finished top 10 in the past five years. Four of those riders are retired. Another two are injured and not racing, while another two simply are not on the start list. That leaves only twenty-four riders that have finished top five.
Tops among them is Tom Boonen. Bonnen has been top 10 each of the last five years. He's almost a sure bet, barring some mechanical issues. The next most consistent is Juan Antonio Flecha with four top fives. Cancellara and Hoste are next with three top fives.
Whereas, the riders that finish top five are rather consistent. Those that finish between places 11 thru 20 are very transient bunch. Almost as if they luck into a reasonably good finish. Forty-five riders have finished between places 11-20.
Okay, onto my picks. In alphabetical order...
Lars Boom - the Flandrian bergs may have been a bit too much for Boom but he is a powerhouse and Roubaix should suit strengths a bit better
Marcus Burghardt - BMC was arguably the strongest team in Flanders. Burghardt is another big powerful guy that seems like he should do well. The question what the team pecking order will be.
Vladimir Gusev - Gusev has the qualities to do well. In fact he has finished top 10 before only to get disqualified because of an illegal train crossing. So, I'm taking full advantage of my rules of not picking a top 10 rider in this case.
First a little analysis, as usual. Roubaix is a race where, if a rider does well once, he is likely do well multiple times. As evidence, only 31 riders have finished top 10 in the past five years. Four of those riders are retired. Another two are injured and not racing, while another two simply are not on the start list. That leaves only twenty-four riders that have finished top five.
Tops among them is Tom Boonen. Bonnen has been top 10 each of the last five years. He's almost a sure bet, barring some mechanical issues. The next most consistent is Juan Antonio Flecha with four top fives. Cancellara and Hoste are next with three top fives.
Whereas, the riders that finish top five are rather consistent. Those that finish between places 11 thru 20 are very transient bunch. Almost as if they luck into a reasonably good finish. Forty-five riders have finished between places 11-20.
Okay, onto my picks. In alphabetical order...
Lars Boom - the Flandrian bergs may have been a bit too much for Boom but he is a powerhouse and Roubaix should suit strengths a bit better
Marcus Burghardt - BMC was arguably the strongest team in Flanders. Burghardt is another big powerful guy that seems like he should do well. The question what the team pecking order will be.
Vladimir Gusev - Gusev has the qualities to do well. In fact he has finished top 10 before only to get disqualified because of an illegal train crossing. So, I'm taking full advantage of my rules of not picking a top 10 rider in this case.
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