Saturday, March 31, 2012

Ronde picks

Tomorrow is THE day for me on the pro calendar. De Ronde, Ronde van Vlaanderen, Tour de Flanders... whatever you call it. This is my favorite. Lots of hills, cobbles and rabid fans. The perfect race.

All the riders seem a little uncertain about how the race will unfold. For the first time in decades the Mur de Geraardsbergen and Bosberg will not be the finale of the race. Instead, three closing that include the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg expect to make for an even tough finish.

With the change in the race's parcours, past results may not mean as much but we'll take a look back and see if anything can be gleaned from the information. Flanders often has new people finishing well. In the past 5 years, 38 different riders have been in the Top 10. Finishing 11-20 is even more wide open. Forty-two different riders have finished 11-20.

Most everybody's favorites for this year are Boonen and Cancellara. Yet, these two have only finished top 5 twice in the past five years. In fact, Cancellara has only finished finished top 20 those same two times (2010 and 2011). Boonen has been top 20 all five years. He's a solid bet for a strong result.

What riders have had the most top 5 in the past five years? Phillipe Gilbert (not of good form), George Hincapie (old), Bjorn Leukemans and Nick Nuyens (broken hip) have three top 5's each.

But, I don't allow myself to pick guys that have been top 10. My choices for Sundays Ronde are. Sagan, Vanmarcke and Degenkolb. I want to put in Marcato but figure he'll be working for Devolder and Leukemans

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