Milano - San Remo
It's Spring Classics time. That means I am obliged to put on my Jimmy the Greek hat and pick the winners... maybe. If I don't make picks Ryan H. will be disappointed and harass me and generally guilt me into making them. I'm not willing to endure his badgering so, now that the start lists seem complete, I buckled down yesterday afternoon studied the riders very hard. I looked at the race parcours, the riders strengths, their weaknesses, their level of "tranquilo" and how much gel they are using in their hair and came to my highly uneducated decisions.
But first, I usually dish out a little superficial statistical information. The most consistently good riders over the past five years are Oscar Freire and Alessandro Petacchi. Freire has been top 10 four of the past five years with two wins. Petacchi has also been top 10 in four of the past five editions of San Remo. He has not won, however. He finished 18th the one year he was not top 10.
Tom Boonen, Thor Hushovd and surprisingly Luca Paolini have had three top 10's in the past five years. Each has had one podium finish and each has also had a top 20 in one of the two years they were not top 10.
The only other riders with multiple top 10's (2 each) are Daniele Bennati, Allan Davis (plus a top 20), Phillipe Gilbert and Fillippo Pozzato (plus a top 20)
Twenty-Five teams will be at the start line in Milano. Nine of those teams will not have a single rider that has finished in the top 10 in the past five years. Eight teams have one rider that has finished top 10.
Six teams have two riders on the start list that have finished top 10.
Ag2r - Elmiger and Nocentini
HTC - Cavendish and Velits
Katusha - Pozzato and Paolini
Omega Lotto - Gilbert and Reynes
Garmin - Hushovd and Haussler
Radio Shack - McEwen and Hunger
And, despite the talk of Garmin-Cervelo's three headed monster of Hushovd, Haussler and Farrar, it is Astana and Leopard-Trek that actually start three riders that have finished in the top 10. Astana brings Davis, Iglinsky and Lorenzetto while Leopard brings Bennati, Cancellara, O'Grady.
One last tidbit that EXTREMELY hard to imagine. Euskaltel is bringing a roster whose names only contain one Z and one X. And they call themselves a Basque team? C'mon!!! They can do better than that.
All that information is mildly interesting but I don't play by those rules. If you are a top 10 rider in the past five years, I cannot pick you. But, if I could, Hushovd would be my man. He was looking very strong despite not having yet won this year and doing leadout work for Farrar at Tirreno-Adriatico. I question his top-end speed a little if its a big bunch sprint but think he will get there with a smaller group and do well enough to win.
My picks, according to my rules, in no particular finishing order.
Matthew Harley Goss - HTC may hope Cavendish is their man but he has shown me very little this year. He keeps struggling to contest the sprint and when he does, it is less than impressive.
Greg van Avermaet - He may be overshadowed by Ballan and Hincapie but he has had a string of solid performances this year. He is climbing very well, so the Cipressa and Poggio shouldn't be a problem. And, he has a decent turn of speed for a finish. Only thing holding back might be if he is pressed into domestique work and he blows up.
Peter Sagan - He may be too young, at only 21 years, for a 300km race but he such a big talent with the qualities to win a race like San Remo that I have a hard time passing him up.
But first, I usually dish out a little superficial statistical information. The most consistently good riders over the past five years are Oscar Freire and Alessandro Petacchi. Freire has been top 10 four of the past five years with two wins. Petacchi has also been top 10 in four of the past five editions of San Remo. He has not won, however. He finished 18th the one year he was not top 10.
Tom Boonen, Thor Hushovd and surprisingly Luca Paolini have had three top 10's in the past five years. Each has had one podium finish and each has also had a top 20 in one of the two years they were not top 10.
The only other riders with multiple top 10's (2 each) are Daniele Bennati, Allan Davis (plus a top 20), Phillipe Gilbert and Fillippo Pozzato (plus a top 20)
Twenty-Five teams will be at the start line in Milano. Nine of those teams will not have a single rider that has finished in the top 10 in the past five years. Eight teams have one rider that has finished top 10.
Six teams have two riders on the start list that have finished top 10.
Ag2r - Elmiger and Nocentini
HTC - Cavendish and Velits
Katusha - Pozzato and Paolini
Omega Lotto - Gilbert and Reynes
Garmin - Hushovd and Haussler
Radio Shack - McEwen and Hunger
And, despite the talk of Garmin-Cervelo's three headed monster of Hushovd, Haussler and Farrar, it is Astana and Leopard-Trek that actually start three riders that have finished in the top 10. Astana brings Davis, Iglinsky and Lorenzetto while Leopard brings Bennati, Cancellara, O'Grady.
One last tidbit that EXTREMELY hard to imagine. Euskaltel is bringing a roster whose names only contain one Z and one X. And they call themselves a Basque team? C'mon!!! They can do better than that.
All that information is mildly interesting but I don't play by those rules. If you are a top 10 rider in the past five years, I cannot pick you. But, if I could, Hushovd would be my man. He was looking very strong despite not having yet won this year and doing leadout work for Farrar at Tirreno-Adriatico. I question his top-end speed a little if its a big bunch sprint but think he will get there with a smaller group and do well enough to win.
My picks, according to my rules, in no particular finishing order.
Matthew Harley Goss - HTC may hope Cavendish is their man but he has shown me very little this year. He keeps struggling to contest the sprint and when he does, it is less than impressive.
Greg van Avermaet - He may be overshadowed by Ballan and Hincapie but he has had a string of solid performances this year. He is climbing very well, so the Cipressa and Poggio shouldn't be a problem. And, he has a decent turn of speed for a finish. Only thing holding back might be if he is pressed into domestique work and he blows up.
Peter Sagan - He may be too young, at only 21 years, for a 300km race but he such a big talent with the qualities to win a race like San Remo that I have a hard time passing him up.
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