My post-Hillsboro funk subsided enough yesterday that I felt like getting on the bike last night. With a couple race weekends this month, I figured it might be good to ride a little. Kept it pretty simple. Forty-five minutes with a few short efforts. The weekend is looking great for a change. Spring has been a tad unpleasant so far and a really nice weekend is overdue.
Not so nice is the weather forecast in Belgium for Flanders. Highs around 40 with rain, hail and snow possible. Wait, that almost sounds like the weather we have been having. If the forecasts hold, it is shaping up as an epic struggle of the hard men.
With the race just two days away I suppose it is time to make my picks. To keep from making the easy picks like Boonen, Hoste or Cancellara, my new rule this year is that the cannot have finished top 10 of the event in the last five years. Before making my pick, these are a few interesting facts... to me at least.
I haven't studied other races in depth but at Flanders, and I would guess Roubaix, there appears to be a larger than normal frequency of repeated high finishes.
- In the last five years, only 30 cyclists have comprised the 50 top ten placings
- Only 15 riders appeared in the top 10 just once in the past five years.
- Since 2003, four riders have placed in the top ten three times and, surprisingly, Boonen is not one of them. Ballan, Hincapie, Hoste, Klier have been top 10 three times.
Last year's winner, Allesandro Ballan, had a nice steady progression the last three years. Sixth in '05, fifth in '06 and last first last year. If a rider this year is to follow a similar progression, the two candidates would be Hincapie who placed seventh in '05, third in '06 but missed last year because of injury. The second choice would be Karsten Kroon, who finished eighth in '06 and fourth in '07. All that said, I cannot pick those guys. Of the people I can pick, the clear choices based on results this year would be either Gilbert or Chavanel. Of the two, I will take Gilbert. Another strong choice would be Devolder.
Pack up or back up–use SkyDrive to transfer files or keep extra copies. Learn how.
Not so nice is the weather forecast in Belgium for Flanders. Highs around 40 with rain, hail and snow possible. Wait, that almost sounds like the weather we have been having. If the forecasts hold, it is shaping up as an epic struggle of the hard men.
With the race just two days away I suppose it is time to make my picks. To keep from making the easy picks like Boonen, Hoste or Cancellara, my new rule this year is that the cannot have finished top 10 of the event in the last five years. Before making my pick, these are a few interesting facts... to me at least.
I haven't studied other races in depth but at Flanders, and I would guess Roubaix, there appears to be a larger than normal frequency of repeated high finishes.
- In the last five years, only 30 cyclists have comprised the 50 top ten placings
- Only 15 riders appeared in the top 10 just once in the past five years.
- Since 2003, four riders have placed in the top ten three times and, surprisingly, Boonen is not one of them. Ballan, Hincapie, Hoste, Klier have been top 10 three times.
Last year's winner, Allesandro Ballan, had a nice steady progression the last three years. Sixth in '05, fifth in '06 and last first last year. If a rider this year is to follow a similar progression, the two candidates would be Hincapie who placed seventh in '05, third in '06 but missed last year because of injury. The second choice would be Karsten Kroon, who finished eighth in '06 and fourth in '07. All that said, I cannot pick those guys. Of the people I can pick, the clear choices based on results this year would be either Gilbert or Chavanel. Of the two, I will take Gilbert. Another strong choice would be Devolder.
Pack up or back up–use SkyDrive to transfer files or keep extra copies. Learn how.
3 Comments:
Dude, I'm taking Gilbert whether it's De Ronde, Vuelta, or the Munich Six-Day...that cat is on fire!
bravo! strong pick. the velonews writer did not even mention devolder in his article.
rudy
Devolder was a machine! Nuyens looked to be on good legs too. What an epic race!
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