Roubaix picks
This year's Roubaix has been turned upside down by the broken collarbone of Fabian Cancellara. Make no doubt about it, he would have won Flanders last week had he not been injured. Boonen barely made it to the top of the Paterberg with Ballan and Pozzato. Cancellara would have been gone ballistic on the Paterberg, if he had not already shed Boonen by that point.
Instead of everyone marking Cancellara this Sunday, like they did last year at Roubaix, the heavy burden falls on Boonen. Boonen's advantage is that he just has to hold on and wait for the sprint, whereas Cancellara needs to rely more on an escape. One would think that teams will try to isolate Boonen and then work him over with repeated attacks. That is easier said than done considering the way that the QuickStep team is riding this year. But, all it takes at Roubaix is one moment of bad luck and a key time and Boonen's race could be over.
On to the picks...
Roubaix is a hard man's race and, as a result, the same guys often do well year after year. Some unexpected names find their way into the top 10 at times. The question is, are they next group of riders that will have repeated success at Roubaix.
Thirty-one riders have been in the top 10 over the past five years. Twelve of them have been there more than once. Boonen & Flecha four times. Cancellara, Hoste & Hushovd three times. Even Van Summeren who was thought to be a surprise winner has been top 10 for three of the past five years.
Remove the 10 riders that are retired or injured and suddenly there are a select group of only 21 riders that have been top 10 in the past five years.
Interestingly, finding your way into places 11-20 is FAR less routine. This seems to indicate to me what a crapshoot Roubaix is. You are either one of the select group of riders that can do well there (top 10) and will likely do so repeatedly OR you find yourself in the next 10 places through being a top guy that had some bad luck. Either that, or you simply end up there through attrition and refusing to quit the race. Only Jeremy Hunt and Staf Scheirlinckx have placed 11-20 twice and Frederic Guesdon has done so an amazing 4 of the last 5 years. Personally, I'd like to see him crack the top 10 again in his last race as a pro.
So, who are my picks? Lars Boom, John Degenkolb and Sep Vanmarcke. If I could pick a second group of three I would say Guesdon for the reasons mentioned above, Terpstra and Vaitkus
Instead of everyone marking Cancellara this Sunday, like they did last year at Roubaix, the heavy burden falls on Boonen. Boonen's advantage is that he just has to hold on and wait for the sprint, whereas Cancellara needs to rely more on an escape. One would think that teams will try to isolate Boonen and then work him over with repeated attacks. That is easier said than done considering the way that the QuickStep team is riding this year. But, all it takes at Roubaix is one moment of bad luck and a key time and Boonen's race could be over.
On to the picks...
Roubaix is a hard man's race and, as a result, the same guys often do well year after year. Some unexpected names find their way into the top 10 at times. The question is, are they next group of riders that will have repeated success at Roubaix.
Thirty-one riders have been in the top 10 over the past five years. Twelve of them have been there more than once. Boonen & Flecha four times. Cancellara, Hoste & Hushovd three times. Even Van Summeren who was thought to be a surprise winner has been top 10 for three of the past five years.
Remove the 10 riders that are retired or injured and suddenly there are a select group of only 21 riders that have been top 10 in the past five years.
Interestingly, finding your way into places 11-20 is FAR less routine. This seems to indicate to me what a crapshoot Roubaix is. You are either one of the select group of riders that can do well there (top 10) and will likely do so repeatedly OR you find yourself in the next 10 places through being a top guy that had some bad luck. Either that, or you simply end up there through attrition and refusing to quit the race. Only Jeremy Hunt and Staf Scheirlinckx have placed 11-20 twice and Frederic Guesdon has done so an amazing 4 of the last 5 years. Personally, I'd like to see him crack the top 10 again in his last race as a pro.
So, who are my picks? Lars Boom, John Degenkolb and Sep Vanmarcke. If I could pick a second group of three I would say Guesdon for the reasons mentioned above, Terpstra and Vaitkus
