Yesterday I was thinking about my pre-Tour predictions. Every once in a while you get lucky and end up looking like a freakin' genius. Here is what I wrote...

"My mind keeps playing different scenarios and the name that keeps coming up more than any other for the win is Landis. He's proven the last couple years to be very strong TT'ist and a sound, but unspectacular climber. I'm banking on his awful Dauphine being an anomaly. He could not have been that far off the pace in comparison to his other performances this year. My biggest concern is Phonak. They are one of the most often drugged teams in recent years and with this year's increased drug spotlight everything could come apart."

Sunday I decided to stay out of the heat and ride the trainer while watching Floyd bonk on La Toussuire. Knocked out 20 minutes of riding when my rear tire sprung a leak. That proved to be a perfectly sucky time for a flat, after just getting warmed up. On top of that, I had no extra tubes so I had to take a tube out of a another wheel. This thing was a bitch and a half to try and get the tire off. Sweat was pouring off me and I was inside.

After my tussle with the tube, I mixed in some intervals and had a total ride time of 1:30. Sweat poured off me the whole time but it had to be infinitely better than being outside at 1pm. The plan is for a similar workout tonight. It's time to get serious for the last month of the season. State Crit is this Sunday.

My Saturday morning ride was in doubt because I really needed to get the emissions test done on my car. In my procrastinated fashion I waited until the last minute to get the inspections done. Luckily the safety inspection passed Friday, except for the windshield wipers which were replaced right away. The emissions testing center opened at 7am and I was there as it opened. No lines at all and I zipped right through. By 7:30, I was home and could have made the ride but I still had not eaten. I got some food in me, changed clothes and headed out.

Sticky. That was the word to describe yesterday. At 8:15 it was still too early to be really hot but the air was thick. I headed south into JeffCo and the northern end of Old Lemay. I thought that it might be possible to cross paths with Joe and Patrick if I went west from the eastern end of Rock Creek. I arrived at Rock Creek by 8:45, which is when they would have been arriving at High Ridge. They must not have taken Rock Creek because we never crossed. I did see Rusty and two riding partners.

In total I rode about 2.5hrs. There were some easy moments. Mostly I felt pretty bad but there were a few moments of good riding. Sunday is supposed to be even more oppressive. Not sure what I will do for a ride.

A week ago the power went from the big storm that rumbled through town. Seventy-two hours later power was restored. Since then I have not gotten around to writing anything. Not because there is nothing to write about. I have been lazy. There is no point in dodging the fact.

I could write about the downs, ups and downs again of Floyd Landis but I don't have the desire. Until a more definitive ruling is made there is no point in saying anything more than last Wednesday and Thursday were some of the most interesting racing in years in terms of drama.

Saturday was the semi-new National Guard Circuit Race just east of Jefferson City. I say semi-new because we had a race there about 8 yrs ago. This is normally a practice driving course so the road is completely closed to traffic and consisted of a gradual downhill turn which continued to descend slowly on a straighter section of road. Another sweeping bend to the right and then up a slightly steeper uphill with a few bends and turns before leveling off again up top. The course is fun and offers opportunities for breaks as evidenced by a Cat 4 break sticking to the finish. When does that happen?

The 3's field was small. Only 21 riders but it was a good mix that seemed evenly divided between STL and KC riders. Only Joe and I showed up for the Sharks. As you can imagine, with only 21 riders, no team had more than 2 riders that I recall. Some team may have had three. The two of us had agreed to not chase any breaks and see how the race played out. We didn't stick to that plan though. Joe was riding well and covered breaks and sat up front for much of the race. I was more true to our pre-race strategy but still jumped into a couple smallish breaks.

When the last lap came it was Joe was up front setting the early pace up the hill before the attacks started. I was sitting about 18th and biding my time with the feeling that people were going to explode in the final parts of the hill and deceptively long finish up top. Halfway up the hill and Joe was spent while I followed wheels and began picking off a few riders. By the top of the hill I was 12th or 13th and it was down to a sprint. Looking back, I probably should have went for the line earlier and also probably should have gotten out of the saddle for a true sprint but I still had good speed. A few more riders did pop and I snagged 10th. Not great but it brought home the big $5 winnings.

A few other musings:

The lightning after most of Wednesday's storm had passed was the most impressive I have ever seen. Every couple seconds more lightning shot across the sky. Not just those single bolts, either. The strikes fanned out across the sky. I tried and tried and tried to get a good picture. Despite all the lightning, I somehow was unable to get anything more than black sky.

Milk gets REALLY lumpy after three days in the fridge without power.

Miss Cracker Barrel Hostess... you are very cute.

Monday afternoon I was watching the evening news and they had a small clip from a news conference earlier in the day with Anna Kournikova, who was in town for a WTT event. Everybody has their tastes but I think most would say she was at least above average in the looks department. This news clip only showed her face and, as I watched, I kept thinking she looked different somehow. This morning the P-D had a story on the tennis matches and a good sized photo of Anna from the very top of thighs, upward. The woman has to be anorexic. There were bones sticking out everywhere on her upper body. Bony shoulders, bony elbows, skinny arms. Even the small amount of her legs that showed looked skinny. She looked very bad. I have pieced together some then (on top) and now (on bottom) pictures. Click to enlarge. That is a disturbing change.



I have not seen today stage up Alpe d'Huez yet but from what I read Landis stamped his authority today. Kloden obviously did well. Schleck did well to hang on. I didn't picture him as a man for the high mountains but he apparently does pretty well. Good to see Cunego go well.

I'm skipping the Worlds tonight. The temps are too damn hot to beat myself up. I'm going to ride the trainer and watch today's stage. The trainer in summer kind of sucks but I will be able to do some focused work that I have not been doing lately.

Pictorial of Stage 15:

This is a stage that I rather familiar with and have taken several pictures and so I figured I would give my own description of the stage.

Stage 15 of the Tour starts in the town of Gap. We watched the stage start from Gap in '03. This was the day after Beloki crashed on Bastille Day as he tried to chase down Vinokourov on the descent of the Col de la Rochette(?). I have some pictures of Gap but nothing that distinguishes it from any other average sized town in France. What I recall from Gap is that I was very tired from the 3 previous days of riding and the temperatures were hot. Standing around in the sun while waiting and watching the riders filter into the start was rough. I was woozy more than once and began searching from some shade.

The other thing I recall was Garthe charging one of the caravan vehicles that were getting ready to roll out of town like a crazed American and begging one of the hotties inside for a Saeco cycling cap. He scored the cap, so I congratulate him.

After about 50km after leaving Gap, you reach the town of Guillestre which begins the lead up to the Col d'Izoard. Our hotel was located about 3kms outside of Guillestre. The night before our bus driver tried to drive through town at about 10pm. The place was in full Bastille Day Eve party mode with streets blocked, etc. The Centre Ville (center of town) was completely blocked with tables, chairs and mingling revelers. We spent what seemed like 30 minutes trying to negotiate our full-sized bus through side streets the size of a Mini Cooper. The bus driver earned his money that night, and the whole trip really. My other memory of Guillestre was the Beloki crash. We had finished watch the Tour go by and we rolled into town. The five of us from St Louis ordered a couple pizzas from a shack like they sell sno-cones here. We were gathered around a little black and white TV with some older French gentlemen. The viewing was less than ideal and we could understand hardly a word of the French commentators but it was a lot of fun and a great memory.

Shortly after leaving Guillestre you pass through 2 or 3 short tunnels built into the hillside and then follow along river valley. This valley is the definition of false flat. Very gradually you gain elevation but when I rode this section it actually looked downhill. Very deceptive. After several km's the road turns left off the main road. These are the early slopes of the Izoard.



This is a wide open area and the road rises at a reasonable rate to start but you know you are climbing.



As you approach the small town of Arvieux you suddenly start to realize that the pedalling has begun to get much more difficult. This road is very un-mountainlike. It is just a long, straight road heading right at the heart of the mountain.



About a km beyond Arvieux, the road bends right and you begin snake up the mountain through a series of curves and switchbacks. The road is rather wooded but along the way you can catch an occasional look down at the town of Arvieux and the road you just rode up.



Eventually, you come around a right-hand bend and the road tilts downward. An unsuspecting rider might think this was the summit. Instead you enter the area on top of the mountain known as the Casse Desert. This is a rather stark, rocky but very dramatic landscape.



After a short downhill which flattens out for a short while the road points upward again for a few km's for about 6 switchbacks until you reach the true summit of the Izoard.



Down you go to the town of Briancon and almost immediately began the long 27-28km ascent of the Col du Lauteret. From the top of the Lauteret and much of its descent you can see the beautiful Meije glacier off to your left.



The descent of the Lauteret is even longer than the ascent. It is not a very technical descent with most of the turns being gradual. The road was pretty choppy last year. My guess is they may have resurfaced the road for this year's race. The descent flattens for a little bit before coming to Bourg d'Oisans, the gateway to Alpe d'Huez. Bourg d'Oisans is a small town and you roll through it in a matter of minutes. You make a left hand turn and suddenly you are climbing 10% grade for the next couple km's. When you reach the first switchback and look back you get an idea of how the early slopes of Alpe d'Huez hits you.



Then you look up the road and what lies ahead is not any easier. But, once you get past those hard early km's the mountain eases up a little and you can settle into more of a rhythm instead of fighting the steepness of the road.



Past halfway you reach the famous little church where the Dutch hang out.



Somewhere between hairpins 11 & 12 I rode near the edge of the road looked down and saw a good view of the road below. Even further below, down in the valley, is Bourg d'Oisans.


With less than 1km to go you are in the heart of the mountaintop resort. The road goes down for a short while, around a roundabout and then a left hand turn. You can really get some good speed here in advance of the last little bit of climbing.


After the left turn, down by the buildings in the distance, you climb this last uphill section to the finish line, where this photo was taken.

Fantasy Update:

Jessica Alba walks into the room wearing... whoops thats a different fantasy. Stage 11 was good to me with Landis scoring big and taking the overall lead. Leipheimer finally lived up to expectations and earned me some nice points as well. Sastre was solid. Mayo, however, officially gave my team a kick in the gut with his spiritless abandon of the race. Still, I made a powerful move up into 460th

My good GC positions gave good points in Stage 12 along with Ballan sneaking into the successful breakaway. Again I moved up in the overall into 334th place

Stage 13 was dominated by the long breakaway again. I had no representation there so I was left fighting for the lesser sprint points for the days stage and scored okay as the GC didn't change much. I dropped slightly to 352nd

Predictions for Stage 14 into Gap: Needs to be someone who can climb a little since a Cat 2 climb comes shortly before the finish and still is far enough down on GC that the main guns won't chase too hard. You won't see a Phonak or Caisse d'Epargne rider try any late minute attack. I could someone like Simoni or Cunego, Garzelli, Gerrans of AG2r, Martinez of Discovery,

If the race comes down to a sprint I'd go with Freire or Zabel because there is a good chance Boonen and McEwen may not make be able to stick with the leaders up the final climb.

Allez Popo! After a few days of deserved criticism of Discovery, they finally did some good this year. They came out and tried to get in a break. First Hincapie, and eventually Popovych, who was lucky enough to be given some leeway by Phonak and the remainder of the peloton. And when it came down to crunch time Popovych was rewarded for his aggression. Attack, attack, attack, and finally break the will of Ballan and Freire with yet another attack. Well done.

Memo to Johan Bruyneel: If you say you are going to attack, have some riders that are capable of attacking. What a sorry team Discovery has proven to be. None of their men were big threats to win overall but they haven't even been competitive.

Today was a decisive day in the Tour as much destruction was wrought upon the peloton. I have yet to actually watch the stage but followed the updates at work. Today revealed 5, maybe 6 guys possibly capable of winning in Paris. Some are longer shots than others but you can rule out the other 160+ riders. Landis looks to be the odds on favorite. Menchov, Evans, Sastre, Kloden have some chance still. If Leipheimer truly did have diarrhea the night before he lost 5 minutes to Landis in the TT he must be very frustrated. Otherwise, he would likely be top 3 right now.

The French have had a nice showing so far and you can be sure they will be trying to get in every break on Bastille Day tomorrow.

Tour Thoughts:

Whoo boy!!! Discovery was crazy with the attacks today. One after another until the entire peloton was left gasping. What? They didn't attack? Johan said they would. Somebody, even if it is not Discovery, better try something tomorrow or I will be pissed.

Iban Mayo is so f'ing exasperating. I like guy for some dumb reason but can there be a more potentially up or down rider than Mayo? The cynic would say he didn't get his drugs today but he's been like this for year's except for '03 when he was pretty consistent. How can a guy who, on a good day, is one of the finest climbers around get dropped on the the first real mountain of the day and lose 24 minutes. I can't explain getting dropped in the first place but once he does lose contact it seems he has no heart and gives up. And the worst part is I was dumb enough to pick him as one of my climbers on the fantasy team based on what he did in the Dauphine. He's going to be a complete non-factor for the rest of the Tour.

I rode okay at the Worlds tonight. Rode near the front for the first half of the race before taking a breather for a while. At 41 min was a prime for a $100 bike bag. A Dent Wizard (Stover?) rolled off the front and had a nice gap. I turned to my right and asked Hairdoo if he wanted me to go. He seemed ambivalent but I thought it was silly to let the guy take the bag uncontested so I went and closed the gap. Jay went by on my right and Carlitos? on my left with Jay ultimately getting the bag I think. That short effort blew me up and I rolled around for one more lap before pulling off and watching the final four laps.

On the Tour front, the flat stages have finally come to an end. I've enjoyed them more than usual this year with no big train leading everything out, but waiting until stage 10 before reaching the mountains seems much later than normal. I'll have to investigate.

A few teams have talked about being aggressive in the mountains, most notably Discovery with their sub-par TT efforts. Let's hope the climbers come out firing. Stage 10 is fairly tough. The downside is 40 clicks from the summit of the Marie-Blanque to Pau. In my two years in the Pyrenees, I have not ridden the first mountain of the stage, the Col du Soudet. It's HC so there is not much more to say. The Marie-Blanque, however, was part of L'Etape last year. The mountain is not dramatic in terms of scenery. It is wooded for almost its entirety. The most unique feature, other than the pain it handed out, was the road sign at the summit announcing that road the Route de Fromage. Thats right, the Cheese Road. I took this photo looking back on the road up to the summit. It leveled of in the last couple hundred meters but trust me, it is steep.



Anyway, if riders are going to attack this will be the place in the hopes of holding on for the last 40km. The Marie-Blanque is not terribly difficult for the first 4-5km's. But then, if you are a mountain goat, you have your chance to hurt the leaders. The final 4km are 11.5%, 12.5%, 10.5% and 12%. If you are off you game at that point, it will be exposed and you risk losing time or at least wasting a lot of energy catching back on. We will see what happens. Let the fireworks begin.

We rode down to the covered bridge yesterday. Five of us started but Carl Frederick chased us down in Valley Park. The others he was meeting didn't show up. Then, on the last stretch to Haute Arete, Joe flatted. While he was changing tubes, up rolled Rusty, Andy and older guy Bruce. So, we wound up with a sizable group of nine rolling down Hillsboro-House Springs Rd. I was feeling pretty decent until the last few rolling hills before Glade Chapel. Then it was like somebody flipped a switch and my legs turned off. The ride back on Old Lemay was fair at best. I couldn't put forth an effort and I got slower with each hill. Cramps began to creep in as well. Eventually everyone regrouped on Route de Quatre Arêtes. Everyone started to take at turn at the front and we were moving pretty well when the legs started tightening up again with every little roller. I bailed out of the paceline at that point. I didn't want my legs locking up maybe causing a wreck. I limped back to the Citgo at Haute Arete. Some Powerade helped some I'm sure but there was no riding through the cramps. They stayed the rest of the ride. On top of that, my left knee began hurting. By the end of the ride, it was screaming. Time to stretch the I.T. band again.

The one bright spot was that I rode about as well as Levi Leipheimer in yesterday's TT. Damn it Levi, you are killing my fantasy team! Gonchar put in an Ullrich-like performance to win by almost a minute. He might fight pretty hard in the mountains but he's bound to crack at some point. Landis has set himself up nicely for the overall. Evans is still a definite threat. Karpets is looking good. Discovery has put themselves in a hole with all their TT performances. I'm ready for the mountains to begin.

My fantasy team had a good day today in Stage 5. I finished 144th and made a strong push up the GC and moved in to 783rd.

Despite my busting Boonen in my last post he is carrying my team right now. He has provided over 60% of my points. If he'd won a couple stages maybe I would have cut him slack. Ballan finally showed up for me today. Saturday, it is time for Levi to step and start contributing to the team. Zabriskie and Landis have contributed so far and should start playing much larger roles starting with Saturday's TT as Boonen falls away from the General Classification.

With the out-of-town company now having left town I will scribble a few thoughts from the last few days.

 

1) I've haven't ridden since last Tuesday and have packed on a few lbs.  My next ride will not be pleasant.

2) Even though a certain reader has some apparent distaste for Valverde, I wish he hadn't crashed a few days ago.  His crash does probably help my Fantasy team at <a href="http://www.velogames.com">Velogames</a> by hurting a lot of other teams.

3) My Fantasy team is lumbering along right now as a mid-level team.  I'm tied for 1082 out of 1925 teams.  I think I will move up some when the race heads to the mountains.  Saturday's TT should help too. 

4) Boonen appears to be off his game.  He seems to be learning the excuse game quite well.  Here are some of the excuses I recall...  The final km's are not fast enough...  The sprints are starting from behind...  I had a flat for the last 5km's.  More on that flat tire in a future posting.  Now that I criticize him, he has probably won Stage 5 today.

 

Off-topic thoughts:

Tuesday, I went to the racetrack for a little while.  The place was packed.  I hadn’t been to the track since I was a youngin’.  We didn’t stay for all the races but it was an interesting way to kill an hour and a half.  I didn’t actually bet but my trained eye can obviously spot equine talent.  I picked the winner of the first two races.  Before betting on the third race, my brother asked my opinion.  Horse #1 looked good to me.  Apparently I don’t work well under pressure.  Horse #1 finished in 5^th… out of 5 horses. 

 

There is a certain depressing, creepiness to the track.  Several of the jockeys seemed very old.  Jockeying is a dangerous game and seeing these old-looking guys bounce around a track like Fairmount is kind of sad.  Maybe Fairmount has a better reputation than I imagine, but it seems some of these guys are hanging on to some semblance of a career just to pay the bills.  That happens in any career I suppose but it always seems sadder to me in sports.

 

As sad as the old jockeys may have been they were not as creepy as the track workers.  Some seemed normal but others had that always enticing inked up, drug/alchohol induced blank stare and zombike-like walk of a carnival worker.

 

And speaking of creepy, I heard today that Sophia Loren is going to pose nude in the 2007 version of the exclusive Pirelli calendar.  I’m willing to concede that she had a certain level of sexiness in her prime but Sophia Loren never did get me excited.  Probably because she is two generations older than me.  Therein lies my concern about this news.  Do we really need a 72 yr old woman posing nude?  I think not.
 

Tour Prologue. Hushovd was something of a surprise winner. It's not completely unusual for a sprinter to have a pretty good prologue, though. Hincapie was strong as expected and just missed the win. Valverde has improved his time trialing some but 4th is bit of a surprise. The real test will be the first long TT. Landis' was unlucky to miss his start due to a flat tire. Sherwen was saying it cost him 8 seconds. My watch had it at about 7 seconds. Either way he would have been just off the winning pace. Leipheimer was a little disappointing. Now we been the typically boring 5 or 6 days of flat riding and waiting for maybe 10 minutes of buildup and 20 seconds of exciting sprint.